Over the years, we here at Foundamental refined our framework for thinking about robotics in architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC). It's a lot about finding the sweet spot where demand meets efficiency meets buy-readiness meets repeatability. Let me walk you through it.

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Initially, look in your robotics thesis for a narrow, buy-ready AEC subset of your market that you can address capital efficiently. That could be one workflow, one subset of a trade that you can do very repeatedly initially.

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The Ideal Robotics Scaling Function in AEC

When I look at a robotics company in AEC, I have learnt to very early on consider the scaling functions of demand vs component library. Addressing a steep function of demand quickly with one component (drastically speaking) just does not exist in construction hard-tech (first image).

You will find a bunch of opportunities that scale as you go, where customers tell you 'hey happy to give you the next project, but now I need these features' and you realize, for these features you need to build a number of new components. That near-linear scaling function - as every good founder will appreciate - is not going build a very scaleable business function. But, to be fair, it could still be a business and just scale factor x slower ! (second image)

Now, the one that is truly one to be cautious about - but unfortunately the one I encounter the MOST in AEC robotics - is the function where you need to design your robotics business such that you need to build a ton of components in your library (hard and soft) in order to begin addressing demand. Now, founders and investors alike might tell themselves 'yeah but WHEN I eventually get there, it will scale super nicely'. It's a convenient lie. You are very unlikely to survive to even get to that point (third image).

Instead, the winning scale function is the one below, built on a series of demand S-curves. What I want to see is that S-curve series. Here's how it works:

1. Start with a narrow, well-defined subset of the market where you repeat with a manageable initial set of components.
2. Build your initial hardware and software components for that specific niche.
3. Use those components as a foundation to attack the next segment. You will still need to add new components for the next S-curve, but you pick the next segment partially by re-usability and re-combinability of your existing components.
4. Rinse and repeat, reusing and recombining your existing tech each time.
5. Now, the key here is: Eventually you become a software + track record company as your hard components library has become built (with ongoing upgrades of course), and you have become a platform now.
6. This way, you access the true scale function of hard-tech and robotics in AEC, while surviving to get there.

This approach lets you scale efficiently. You're not reinventing the wheel for every new application. Instead, you're building a modular platform that can adapt to new challenges.

My Robotics Framework: What I Look For

My framework for evaluating robotics companies in AEC boils down to three key factors:

1. Buy Readiness
2. Success Readiness
3. Recombination Readiness

Let's break these down.

Buy Readiness

This is all about market fit. I'm looking for:

• Work that's already bought as a service or via contractors regularly
• Established buying processes and governance
• A clear budget line item for the work (not hidden in other costs)
• A delivery method that doesn't raise questions about norms, standards, or long-term durability

For example, drilling holes for walls might not be ideal because it's usually bundled into overall wall work. We want something that stands on its own in project budgets.

Success Readiness

This is about the nature of the work itself. The ideal scenario includes:

• Functional requirements over high visual requirements
• Large homogeneous surface areas relative to edges/corners
• Highly repetitive functions in a repetitive sequence
• Repetitive site settings that aren't perfectly controlled
• Significant value uplift (100% or more) or high recurrence for maintenance tasks

Recombination Readiness

This is where the team and development process come in. I'm looking for:

• Founders with a product background in complex software who are also great at sales
• A constant deployment and component mentality (think software mindset applied to robotics)
• Quick iteration and development processes

Promising AEC Segments for Robotics

Based on this framework, here are some areas that look interesting:

• Brick walling
• Shingle roof tiling for single-family homes in the US
• Tiling of large rooms (warehouses, factories) where visual perfection isn't critical
• Paving
• Window cleaning
• Painting

As you go down this list, the work sequencing complexity decreases. There's a sweet spot where you have enough complexity to build defensibility, but not so much that it becomes unmanageable.

Some areas I'm less sure about include drywall finishing (high visual fidelity requirements), sound barriers (potential durability questions), bathroom tiling in single-family homes (too many corners), and large-scale operations like excavation or asphalting (might be too simple to automate cost-effectively).

The Ideal Development Process

To succeed in AEC robotics, your development process is crucial. Here's what I look for:

• Inexpensive iteration: Aim for prototypes that cost 10-15% of the final robot
• Off-the-shelf, iterable components (avoid bespoke hardware early on)
• Start with a simulation environment you own and control
• Build a workshop that mimics your target sites
• Aim for one build per day - tear down in the morning, rebuild, learn, repeat
• Design for modularity from the start
• Locate near robotics hubs for talent (e.g., Odense in Denmark, Amsterdam)
• Consider using a niche programming language with a cult following to attract dedicated talent

The Robotics Founders I'm Looking For

Here's where I might surprise you. I'm not looking for traditional automation engineers or robotics experts. Instead, I want:

• Founders with backgrounds in complex software products
• People who've managed large teams (50+ engineers) in successful, complex software projects
• Individuals who can make informed choices about the best software stack for a robotics company
• The unicorns who combine this technical background with natural sales ability

It's a high bar, I know. But that's what I believe it takes to build a truly transformative robotics company in AEC.

We're at the cusp of a robotics revolution in construction. The opportunities are massive, but so are the challenges. If you're building something that aligns with this framework, I want to hear from you. Let's reshape the future of AEC together.

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